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There will be a great deal of discussion and speculation about the next General Election not least in where the places to watch might be – Tom Finnegan on Mandate set out seven he’ll be watching, for example. In the first of a short series, I’m going to give my take on places to watch – starting with what I call the changing coalfields.
England’s former coalfields are, in the popular mind, the true heartlands of Labour support. Great bastions of socialism providing the core of Labour front benches. Having a mining heritage counts you in good stead in the Party still (maybe I should sign up) and no-one in the media is expecting any change to this, the natural order of things.
Let me tell you a different story by looking at five constituencies with a strong mining heritage where there’s a chance of electing a Conservative MP at the coming General Election.
The Yorkshire Constituency of Wakefield has been a Labour seat since a by-election in 1932 but was only held be the current MP, Mary Creagh with a majority slightly over 5,000 in 2005. Boundary changes favour Labour and UK Polling Report gives a notional 2005 majority of 6,526 requiring a swing of just under 8% for the Conservatives to win. A more recent form guide – the 2008 local election results saw the Conservatives a full 15 percentage points ahead of Labour (45% Con, 30% Lab).
Bassetlaw – in North Nottinghamshire - has, like Wakefield, been a Labour seat since the 1930s. In 2005 John Mann held it for Labour with a majority approaching 11,000. Here though boundary changes favour the Conservatives and the UK Polling Report notional majority is 8,126 – requiring a swing slightly over 8% for a Conservative gain. Again the most recent local election results – the 2009 Nottinghamshire County Council elections – suggest the Conservatives are doing well securing over 50% of the vote in this constituency over 10 points clear of Labour.
North West Leicestershire (where the sitting MP suddenly and sadly died on Boxing Day last year) is a genuine marginal having been Tory-held from 1983 up to 1997. There are no boundary changes and Labour held the seat in 2005 with a majority of just 4,477 – needing a swing well below 5% for a Conservative win. In last year's County Council elections Labour won no wards here and got barely 20% of the vote (just a little ahead of the BNP) with the Conservatives winning over 40%. This is the likeliest of these five seats to change hands especially since David Taylor’s sad death.
Rother Valley is classic South Yorkshire mining country and has returned Labour MPs since before the First World War. Kevin Barron, the sitting MP had a majority of 14,224 in 2005 over the Conservatives. The boundary changes here favour the Conservatives strongly and this is reflected in the last local election results with them pulling nearly 9 points clear of Labour (indeed 9 of Rotherham District’s 10 Conservative councillors are from this seat). That said, the swing needed is nearly 15% on the nominal figures from 2005 so a big call for the Conservatives to win. Expect it to be pretty close though.
Don Valley is in the Yorkshire district of Doncaster and is represented by former Labour cabinet minister, Caroline Flint (who had an 8000+ majority in 2005). Making predictions in Doncaster is always a tricky business these days but Labour got just 26% of the vote in winning a recent by-election in Rossington which should be their strongest area in the constituency. However, with competitive minor parties like the English Democrats and the BNP, it’s really anybody's guess. Certainly worth watching on election night!
The point of featuring these constituencies is to show how demographic change in these largely rural places is making them more Conservative-aligned. At the same time the mining heritage, while still very strong, plays less and less of a political role. The next five constituencies will be places where the opposite is true – where demographics are favouring Labour.
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