There appear to be different opinions about the veracity or otherwise of claims that deceased felines rebound when dropped from a great height. The evidence of large amounts of force on animals suggests more squish than bounce – at least judging from the too frequent roadside evidence. It seems to me however that the propensity for bounce from our dead moggy depends on these factors:
A. Condition of the dead cat
B. Height from which the dead cat falls
C. Nature of the surface below the falling pussy
Using a recent suggested “dead cat bounce” from UK politics let’s examine whether the bounce is real or an illusion. The example is a daily tracking opinion poll on 30th September 2009 (from YouGov) that showed the Conservative lead over Labour down to just 7 percentage points. Coming during Labour’s annual gathering this poll resulted in some excitable comment from Labour supporters and the suggestion (from some perhaps more rightwardly inclined) that even dead cats bounce when dropped from a great height!
Condition of the dead cat. In this case the dead cat is the Labour Party. To be fair the cat’s condition could be quite a lot worse (indeed some are insisting that there are signs of life in the old mog yet) and I doubt whether rigor mortis has set in. So: a) Definitely dead; b) Died recently but no longer warm
Height from which the dead cat has fallen. The highest point for Labour’s opinion poll rating since 2005 was 44% in a YouGov Poll for Channel 4 in September 2007. The poll reported above with a 7 point lead put Labour on 30% and the lowest rating they have received (ignoring the 19% achieved in the real European election) is 23% in a ComRes poll for the Independent only three days earlier on 27th September 2009. A long way down!
Nature of the receiving surface. The fall is I surmise onto the pliant surface of the media as a proxy for the rather rougher and tougher surface of public opinion in general. It seems to me a little like those weird spongy surfaces we find under swings and roundabouts these days. As soon as one lot are down the media switches to talking down the other lot in a frantic and often purile attempt at balance. These surfaces are designed for kids to bounce so we have to conclude that our dead cat will bounce too!
So to conclude:
1. The Labour Party is a cold dead cat but not yet stiff
2. The Party fell a long way – 48% of the political slippery pole’s height
3. The spongy surface of the media (plus wall-to-wall coverage) provided bounce
Dead cats do bounce (ceteris paribus) – and recent polls bear this out as Labour’s poll rating falls back again!
1 comment:
A work of genius - I salute you. The cat used to illustrate the theory is, indeed, dead; I will ponder on the state of 'deadness', but my initial reaction is 'in the early state of decomposition'.
The 'bouncy surface of the media' will, I suspect, degrade over the next 9 months or so, due to overuse by said dead cat.
I do wonder if the thickness of the cat's fur gives the cat a false sense of invincibility; it seems the cat lost count of how many lives it had remaining.
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